EU car CO2 rules: what the ITRE and TRAN vote would change for EV prices and plug-in hybrids

Where the file stands

On 22 October 2026, the Industry committee (ITRE) adopted the EPP/S&D/Renew compromise by 49 votes to 27, with 5 abstentions. The Transport committee (TRAN) adopted it by 27 to 18, with 1 abstention. TRAN had first scheduled its vote for 5 October and postponed it to give the centre parties more time to agree.^1,2

Neither committee is in charge of the file. Parliament's procedure file, 2025/0420(COD), lists ITRE and TRAN as committees for opinion. The Environment committee (ENVI) is responsible, with Massimiliano Salini (EPP) as rapporteur since 19 March 2026. Parliament therefore has no position yet.³

ENVI is reported to be voting in early November. The procedure file gives 23 November 2026 as an indicative plenary date. electrive, citing Der Spiegel, expects December. Pascal Canfin has said the plenary must wait for a Parliament agreement on the automotive part of the Industrial Accelerator Act, and ITRE's vote on that act is expected in December.^1,3,4

After Parliament votes, it must agree a common text with EU governments. Parliament needs a simple majority. The Council needs a qualified majority of at least 15 member states representing at least 65% of the EU population. Until that process ends, current law applies.^1,5,6

What current law says

Regulation 2019/631, as amended, sets an EU-wide car fleet target of 93.6 g CO2/km for 2025-2029 and 49.5 g/km for 2030-2034. From 2035 the target is 0 g/km, a 100% cut. For vans the targets are 153.9 and 90.6 g/km.⁷

Carmakers can already average their 2025-2027 results over three years under Regulation (EU) 2025/1214, adopted on 17 June 2025. A credit for zero- and low-emission vehicles (0-50 g/km) applies in 2025-2029. Each point of share above a 25% benchmark eases a carmaker's target by 1%, up to a maximum of 5%.⁷

A carmaker that misses its target pays €95 for each g/km of exceedance, multiplied by every new car it registered that year. For context, zero-emission cars took 14.5% of new registrations in the EU, Norway and Iceland in 2024. Average new-car CO2 fell 28% between 2019 and 2024.⁷

2035: three ways to loosen the target

The Commission's proposal, COM(2025)995 of 16 December 2025, cuts the 2035 target from 100% to 90%. Carmakers would have to offset the remaining emissions with credits. Credits for EU-made low-carbon steel would be capped at 7% of the 2021 target, and renewable fuel credits at 3% (1% for fuels from Part B Annex IX feedstocks). The steel methodology would be set later by delegated act.^3,8

The committee compromise sets 87.5% against 2021 for cars, 'on condition' that steel credits offset remaining emissions up to 95%. Some reports describe this as 87.5% plus a 7.5-point steel credit. Others call it 95% with up to 7.5 points from steel. Both descriptions give the same arithmetic: an 87.5% tailpipe floor, a 95% total, and 5% of the 2021 target left unoffset.^1,4,5

France and Germany agreed on 16 October to back 90% with no offsetting. Each position loosens the rules differently. The Commission keeps the full 100% through credits. The committees allow a lower tailpipe cut but require partial offsets. Paris and Berlin want a higher tailpipe cut but no offsets at all.^4,8

The compromise also counts cars running on 'eligible' renewable fuels as zero-emission vehicles. Salini's ENVI draft report had proposed reclassifying vehicles that run only on alternative fuels as zero-emission, and raising the 3% fuel-credit cap. We could not confirm whether the compromise changes that cap.^4,9

Before 2035: averaging, super-credits and vans

The Commission would add a second three-year averaging period, 2030-2032, with compliance judged at the end of the period. This gives carmakers room to fall short in 2030 and catch up by 2032. We have not confirmed whether the compromise keeps, lengthens or alters this period, or whether it changes the 49.5 g/km figure.^7,8

Until 2034, each new zero-emission car classed as a 'small electric vehicle' under Regulation 2018/858 and made in the EU would count as 1.3 vehicles in the fleet average. A carmaker selling 100 such cars would book them as 130 zero-emission cars, which pulls its average down further. The Commission would define 'made in the EU' later. T&E reads the rule as covering BEVs up to 4.2 m long in 2030-2034. The final drafting will decide whether the multiplier also counts before 2030.^8,10

The compromise extends super-credits to 'particularly efficient' EVs as well as affordable small ones. The coverage we retrieved did not give the multipliers or the eligibility rules.⁴

Vans now have three versions. Current law sets a 50% cut for 2030. The Commission proposes 40%. The compromise sets 35% for 2030 and 80% for 2035, against the Commission's 90%.^4,7

Plug-in hybrids

The Commission says its proposal would let plug-in hybrids, range extenders, mild hybrids and combustion cars stay on sale after 2035. The ICCT reads the text the same way. Any 2035 target below 100% leaves room for some cars with tailpipe emissions in a carmaker's fleet.^7,8,11

The Commission's legal text mentions plug-in hybrids only in a recital about possible future labels showing real-world electric-mode driving. The operative articles we reviewed do not change how PHEV CO2 is counted. We could not confirm whether the ITRE/TRAN compromise changes PHEV accounting. Our separate piece on the French and German push over PHEV correction factors covers that fight.⁸

The official figure matters because it sets a car's value for compliance. Our car file lists the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Diamant 4WD in Germany at 60 g/km on the WLTP weighted combined cycle, with 2.7 L/100 km plus 16 kWh/100 km. That is above the 50 g/km ceiling for the 2025-2029 low-emission credit. On that figure, this version earns its maker no credit despite its plug.^7,12

What it could mean for EV prices

We found no primary source that measures how far fleet targets have driven EV discounts. The mechanism is still clear from the fines. Take a hypothetical carmaker 3 g/km over target with 400,000 registrations. At €95 per g/km per car, it would pay €114 million. Selling extra EVs at thin margins can cost less than that.⁷

Softer targets shrink that exposure, so the incentive to cut EV prices weakens. T&E estimates that the Commission's 2030 averaging and super-credits alone would lower the 2030 BEV share of new cars from 57% to 47%. That is an advocacy group's model of the Commission version, not an official forecast or a model of the compromise.¹⁰

Two points cut the other way. None of the proposals described in our sources changes the 93.6 g/km target for 2025-2029. Small, EU-built EVs would also become more valuable for compliance under the super-credit, which gives makers a reason to keep their prices competitive.^7,8

EVs in our car file, and the super-credit tests

Our car file lists several EVs readers often compare. The Renault 5 E-Tech comes with 36.5, 40 or 52 kWh batteries and WLTP ranges of up to 305, 315 and 430 km in Europe. The Citroën ë-C3 has 30 or 44 kWh and up to 132 or 202 miles WLTP in the UK. The BYD Dolphin Surf has 30 or 43.2 kWh and 220-322 km WLTP.^13,14,15

The Kia EV3 has 58.3 or 81.4 kWh and 436 or 605 km WLTP in Ireland. The Volkswagen ID.3 offers 50, 58 or 79 kWh usable, with up to 630 km WLTP for the 79 kWh version in Europe.^16,17

Two tests decide whether a model would earn the 1.3x multiplier as proposed: the small-vehicle category and EU manufacture. Our car file does not yet record either for these models, and 'made in the EU' has not been defined. It also holds no verified prices for them. We are therefore not saying which models would qualify, or which compliance pressure has made cheaper, until the data supports it.⁸

Still undecided, and what to check

These points are still open: how the compromise treats PHEVs; whether 2030-2032 averaging survives; the size of the efficiency super-credit; any change to the fuel-credit cap and the definition of eligible renewable-fuel cars; whether ENVI adopts the same text; and where the Council lands. Delegated acts on steel credits and 'made in the EU' would then set what the credits are worth in practice.^4,8

If you are buying now, current law applies. For a plug-in hybrid, check the official WLTP electric range for your exact version and market against how often you can charge. The Outlander PHEV, for example, quotes up to 85 km in Germany and 53 miles in the UK. For an EV, compare list prices and incentives in your own market on the day you order.^6,12